Glenn Reynolds wants to be able to blame Democrats regardless what happens in Iraq. Instapundit jumps on a stretched, absurd claim that Democrats will “be in trouble” in the 2008 election if the surge in Iraq works.
Santayana’s ghost laughs.
First, one needs to remember what happened to George Bush I, whose approval ratings were north of 80% at the conclusion of the Persian Gulf War, which liberated Kuwait from Iraqi occupation. On February 28, 1991, George H. W. Bush looked to be a solid lock for winning the 1992 election campaign.
Bill Clinton defeated Bush handily just 22 months later. Among many other factors, with the nation not focused on war in the Middle East, the economy became a key issue. There are a few people deep in Democratic strongholds who are cynical enough to say the Iraq War could have been over by the end of 2003, but Karl Rove wanted a war to be sure Bush won in 2004, Rove having observed the lessons of 1992.
No Republican should be sanguine about the current state of the economy. Another large mortgage company collapsed day before yesterday, unemployment is up this month, job creation is down — even if these are just temporary trends, the crushing debt created by the Bush Administration’s spend-but-don’t-tax policies will be in tight focus in 2008.
What spending has the Bush administration put off? Road repair and bridge repair have suffered — bridge safety did not appear to be a priority for the first seven years of the Bush administration, while Republicans did find millions for Sen. Ted Stevens’ “bridge to nowhere.” The combination of corruption throughout Republican office holders, and lack of spending where spending is needed, pose serious problems for the whole party.
Should the surge succeed — and every Democrat I know prays for success soon in Iraq — two things happen which should worry Republicans: Troops can come home from Iraq, making those who called for change in Iraq policy look like heroes; and domestic issues rise to the top of concerns of Americans.
One sure sign that Republicans fear success of the surge in Iraq is already on display: They’re saying Democrats fear such a success. The punditocracy keeps telling us 23-1/2 hours each day, Democrats aren’t devious enough to think that far ahead. Should we believe them on that point? Then we have to believe Democrats aren’t smart enough to figure out a surge success might be a problem. The reality is, simply, Democrats hope, pray and work for success. There is a much higher percentage of Democrats with family members serving than Republicans, judging from the agendas at the state conventions I’ve seen over the past six years.
The best thing that could happen for our nation is for Iraq to sustain political stability to the point that the shooting and bombing dramatically decrease, or even better, stop.
Another key point Republicans seem to miss: When the troops come home, coming with them will be more Democratic Party office holders who served than Republican office holders who served. Already, in Texas, Iraq War veteran, State Rep. Rick Noriega, is running for the U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent John Cornyn. Republicans, especially the chicken hawks, don’t really want to face incumbents. The practice of running down veterans which has proved so successful for Republicans in the past (John Kerry, John McCain, Max Cleland) is unlikely to work much longer, especially for veterans of conflict less than a decade out of the news.
Success in Iraq at this point will not erase the memory of the failed policies that got us into a quagmire unnecessarily. Alas for Republicans, missteps on economic matters, on regulatory matters, and serious breakdowns in law enforcement, won’t be easy issues to overcome in 2008.
Millard Fillmore's Bathtub 
This has absolutely nothing to do with this post, but have you seen the U.S. Presidential Speeches Tag Cloud http://chir.ag/phernalia/preztags/ I happened upon a speech by Millard Fillmore, so naturally I thought of this blog. I can’t link you directly to the speech I looked at, which was his 1850 State of the Union Address, (you have to use the slider to get there) but these were the most common words in that speech according to the tag cloud:
appropriations california constitution negotiation pacific ports revenue territory treasury treaty war
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