Sorry about that.
Near the end of storm recovery in Dallas, on Sunday, our power went out. Still out.
Well, at least partially. I’ll leave it to the electricians, but we’ve lost all big power, 220-volts, to major appliances including the furnace and water heater, and half of our other house circuits, including the one that runs the DSL modem.
Posting will be slight while I shiver and curse and harangue Oncor Energy.
Leave a Comment » | 
Administrivia, Disasters, Global warming, Personal | Tagged: Administrivia, Dallas, disaster, Oncor, Personal, Texas | 
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Posted by Ed Darrell
Inside Yellowstone noted just three earthquakes in the Yellowstone swarm in a 24-hour period covering most of Saturday.
It wasn’t the End of the World as Old Faithful Knows It, after all.
The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) suggests the swarm continues, however — but doesn’t suggest anyone should be too concerned about it.
As of January 26, 2010 9:00 AM MST there have been 1,360 located earthquakes in the recent Yellowstone National Park swarm. The swarm began January 17, 2010 around 1:00 PM MST about 10 miles (16 km) northwest of the Old Faithful area on the northwestern edge of Yellowstone Caldera. Swarms have occurred in this area several times over the past two decades.
There have been 11 events with a magnitude larger than 3, 101 events of magnitude 2 to 3, and 1248 events with a magnitude less than 2. The largest events so far have been a pair of earthquakes of magnitude 3.7 and 3.8 that occurred after 11 PM MST on January 20, 2010.
The first event of magnitude 3.7 occurred at 11:01 PM MST and was shortly followed by a magnitude 3.8 event at 11:16 PM. Both shocks were located around 9 miles to the southeast of West Yellowstone, MT and about 10 miles to the northwest of Old Faithful, WY. Both events were felt throughout the park and in surrounding communities in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho.
See the University of Utah Seismograph Stations for the most recent earthquake data and press releases. The team is working 24/7 to analyze and communicate information about the swarm. Seismograph recordings from stations of the Yellowstone seismograph network can be viewed online at: http://quake.utah.edu/helicorder/yell_webi.htm.
You can get the information from the horse’s mouth (Dragon’s Mouth?) — some enterprising earth sciences, geography or general science teacher can probably work up a great assignment for students to deal with the data and make sense from them.
Ground deformations in the Yellowstone Caldera, from satellite photos, in 2005 - Geology.com image (This isn't really directly related to the earthquake swarm, but it's a cool image.)
Update, March 12, 2011: This post has been mighty popular over the last week. Can someone tell me, in comments, whether this post was linked to by another site? Why the popularity all of a sudden — even before the Japan earthquake and tsunami? Please do!
8 Comments | Disasters, Geography - Physical, geology, National Parks, Natural history, Natural resources, Science, Volcanoes, Yellowstone | Tagged: earthquakes, Montana, Science, Wyoming, Yellow Volcano Observatory, Yellowstone | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
Stop me if you’ve heard this one:
Earthquake swarm hits the area of the Yellowstone Caldera, around Yellowstone Park; wackoes start predicting the End of the World As We Know It, at least for West Yellowstone, Montana, and Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Unless they are Bobby Jindal, and they predict that the quakes didn’t even happen.
Oh, yeah — that was the series of earthquake swarms in late 2008 and early 2009, right?
Not exactly. It’s happened again.
YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO OBSERVATORY INFORMATION STATEMENT
Thursday, January 21, 2010 2:26 PM MST (Thursday, January 21, 2010 2126 UTC)Yellowstone Volcano
44°25’48” N 110°40’12” W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Current Aviation Color Code: GREENThe earthquake swarm on the northwest edge of Yellowstone Caldera that began on January 17, 2010 continues.
PRESS RELEASE FROM YVO PARTNER UNIVERSITY OF UTAH SEISMOGRAPH STATIONS
Released: January 21, 2010 2:00PM MST
This release is a continuation of information updates building upon our two previous press releases on the ongoing earthquake swarm on the west side of Yellowstone National Park. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations reports that a pair of earthquakes of magnitude 3.7 and 3.8 occurred in the evening of January 20, 2010 in Yellowstone National Park.
The first event of magnitude 3.7 occurred at 11:01 PM and was shortly followed by a magnitude 3.8 event at 11:16 PM. Both shocks were located around 9 miles to the southeast of West Yellowstone, MT and about 10 miles to the northwest of Old Faithful, WY. Both events were felt throughout the park and in surrounding communities in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho.
These two earthquakes are part of an ongoing swarm in Yellowstone National Park that began January 17, 2010 (1:00 PM MST). The largest earthquake in the swarm as of 12 PM, January 21, 2010, was a magnitude 3.8. There have been 901 located earthquakes in the swarm of magnitude 0.5 to 3.8. This includes 8 events of magnitude larger than 3, with 68 events of magnitude 2 to 3, and 825 events of magnitude less than 2. There have been multiple personal reports of ground shaking from observations inside the Park and in surrounding areas for some of the larger events (for felt reports, please visit http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/dyfi/). Earthquake swarms are relatively common in Yellowstone.
The swarm earthquakes are likely the result of slip on pre-existing faults rather than underground movement of magma. Currently there is no indication of premonitory volcanic or hydrothermal activity, but ongoing observations and analyses will continue to evaluate these different sources.
Seismic information on the earthquake can be viewed at the University of Utah Seismograph Stations: http://www.seis.utah.edu/.
Seismograph recordings from stations of the Yellowstone seismograph network can be viewed online at: http://quake.utah.edu/helicorder/yell_webi.htm.
Anyone who has felt earthquakes in the swarm are encouraged to fill out a form on the USGS Community Felt reports web site: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/dyfi/.
This press release was prepared by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory partners of the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Utah, and the National Park Service: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/
—The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a partnership of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, and University of Utah to strengthen the long-term monitoring of volcanic and earthquake unrest in the Yellowstone National Park region. Yellowstone is the site of the largest and most diverse collection of natural thermal features in the world and the first National Park. YVO is one of the five USGS Volcano Observatories that monitor volcanoes within the United States for science and public safety.
CONTACT INFORMATION:
Peter Cervelli, Acting Scientist-in-Charge, USGSpcervelli@usgs.gov (650) 329-5188
The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) was created as a partnership among the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, and University of Utah to strengthen the long-term monitoring of volcanic and earthquake unrest in the Yellowstone National Park region. Yellowstone is the site of the largest and most diverse collection of natural thermal features in the world and the first National Park. YVO is one of the five USGS Volcano Observatories that monitor volcanoes within the United States for science and public safety.
Here’s the map as of Sunday night, January 24, 9:10 p.m. MST (where the observatory is located); while this map may update here, you may want to click over to the observatory for more information (click on the map):
Yellowstone National Park Special Map, showing earthquakes in last week.
Eruptions has a short post on the swarm. Volcanism, which covers volcanoes better than Sherwin-Williams covers the world, has a short post, probably appropriate to the newsworthiness. Stoichiometry mentions them. Not much to say yet, right? Yellowstone Insider doesn’t seem too alarmed.
In mass media, The Billings (Montana) Gazette notes that these quakes are probably just shifting rocks, and not volcanic activity. The headline in the Bozeman (Montana) Daily Chronicle captures the news: “Earthquake Swarm Suggests Just Another Day in Yellowstone.”
Meanwhile, Scott Bowen at True/Slant sounds just a little alarmist. Ralph Maughan sets the right tone: “No, it doesn’t mean the end is near.” The tinfoil hat concessions probably won’t make nearly the money they did a year ago.
Outside of the Yellowstone and Intermountain areas, students will probably ask about 2012. Tell them the Mayans didn’t know anything about Old Faithful.
Resources:
Shake a little news to the rest of the world:
4 Comments | Current History, Disasters, Geography - Physical, geology, History, History of Science, Natural history, Natural resources, Tinfoil Hats, Travel, Volcanoes, Woo, Yellowstone | Tagged: disaster, earthquakes, geography, geology, History, Science, Volcanoes, Woo, Yellowstone Caldera, Yellowstone National Park | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
E-mail from Daniel Mintz at Move-On.org:
As the tragedy in Haiti unfolds, Americans are generously donating millions of dollars to aid organizations.
But when Americans donate to charity with their credit cards, the credit card companies get rich. In some cases they keep 3% of the donation as a “transaction fee,” even though that’s far more than it costs them to process the donation.
It’s outrageous and wrong—and it needs to stop.
Can you sign this petition to the CEOs of the major credit card companies demanding that they waive their processing fees for all charitable donations? Clicking here will add your name:
http://pol.moveon.org/nofees/o.pl?id=18607-5763840-FH68Wgx&t=3
The petition says: “Credit card companies shouldn’t be getting rich off of Americans’ generosity. They should waive all fees on charitable contributions from today on.”
The credit card companies are trying to get ahead of this story, announcing they will temporarily waive the fees they charge on some Haiti-related charitable contributions for the next 6 weeks. But that’s nowhere near enough. Many emergency donations to Haiti will still get hit with hefty bank fees. (To give a sense of how limited the exemption is, Doctors Without Borders isn’t on any of the publicly available lists of charities that won’t be charged fees.)2
All American credit card companies should announce that they will waive ALL fees on charitable contributions, starting today, and going forward for good. This isn’t about helping political organizations like MoveOn, just helping true charitable organizations.
It’s the right thing to do, and honestly, it’s the least they could do after the role they played in crashing the entire global economy last year.But they won’t do it unless they know how angry Americans are that they’re profiting off of this terrible tragedy. Click here to sign the petition, which we’ll deliver to the heads of the major credit card companies:Thanks for all you do.–Daniel, Kat, Peter, Lenore, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. “As Wallets Open For Haiti, Credit Card Companies Take A Big Cut,” The Huffington Post, January 14, 2010
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=86028&id=18607-5763840-FH68Wgx&t=62. “Some Card Fees Waived for Haiti Aid,” The New York Times, January 14, 2010
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=86030&id=18607-5763840-FH68Wgx&t=7Want to support our work? We’re entirely funded by our 5 million members—no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.
PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION, http://pol.moveon.org/. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee
2 Comments | Citizenship, Credit cards, Disasters, Financial literacy, Personal finance | Tagged: American Express, Bank Fees, Credit cards, Disasters, Donations, Haiti, MasterCard, Petition, VISA | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
It’s a point that the denialists just don’t get. If Gore were wrong, if warming isn’t occurring, or if the warming were found to be part of a deeper cycle and all we need to do is hang on for another five or six years until the cycle shifts, that would be great news.
No one would complain about a study that actually showed that.
But no study shows that. And the e-mails that somebody purloined from an English research center, if the worst allegations about scientists were true, can’t affect warming. In fact, as I understand it, the chart that was “doctored” got its new, non-tree-ring data from actual thermometer readings — which, of course, show warming.
Worse, the chart’s predictions for following years turn out to be low! Warming is outpacing some of the pessimists’ predictions.
Every day, I pine for the global warming deniers to be proved right. I loved the old world – of flying to beaches wherever we want, growing to the skies, and burning whatever source of energy came our way. I hate the world to come that I’ve seen in my reporting from continent after continent – of falling Arctic ice shelves, of countries being swallowed by the sea, of vicious wars for the water and land that remains. When I read the works of global warming deniers like Nigel Lawson or Ian Plimer, I feel a sense of calm washing over me. The nightmare is gone; nothing has to change; the world can stay as it was.
But then I go back to the facts. However much I want them to be different, they sit there, hard and immovable. Nobody disputes that greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, like a blanket holding in the Sun’s rays. Nobody disputes that we are increasing the amount of those greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And nobody disputes that the world has become considerably hotter over the past century. (If you disagree with any of these statements, you’d fail a geography GCSE).
Alas, there is no significant or credible evidence that warming is not occurring, nor that we humans are not playing a huge role.
So, in Copenhagen where the world’s leaders and other policy makers are meeting this week to discuss the situation, there will be no champagne to toast an end to global warming.
That would be good news. It’s not the news we get.
Also see:
1 Comment | air pollution, Climate change, climate_change, Cost of Green, Disasters, Environmental protection, Green Politics, Politics, Public health, Science | Tagged: Climate change, Climategate, Copenhagen, Global warming, Government, Green Politics, Politics, Science | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
More than just as tribute to the victims, more than just a disaster story, the Triangle Shirtwaist Co. fire, and the following events including the trial of the company owners, lay out issues students can see clearly. I think the event is extremely well documented and adapted for student projects. In general classroom use, however, the event lays a foundation for student understanding.
A couple of good websites crossed my browser recently, and I hope you know of them.
Cartoon about 1911 Triangle Shirtwaist Fire, New York Evening Journal, March 31, 1911
Events around the fire illuminate so much of American history, and of government (which Texas students take in their senior year):
Use the sites in good education, and good health.
2 Comments | Disasters, Government, Historic documents, History, History images, Icons of history, Images, Immigration, Journalism, Jurisprudence, Justice, Labor and unions, Newspapers, Progressive Era, Public education, Student projects | Tagged: 1911, Disasters, Historic documents, Historic Images, History, labor, New York City, Progressive Era, Triangle Shirtwaist Fire, unions | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
Climate change denialists (sorry, Mr. Watts – denialism is what it is) frequently argue that since the peak heat year of 1998, the planet has been cooling, and may be in a long-term trend to a much cooler planet.
Has anyone told the beetles?
Has anyone told the pine bark beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) that are devastating North American forests?
Colorado conifers affected by pine bark beetles (brown trees are dead) - image from Chad Crawford, Homebrewed Christianity
I was interested to find this photo and this post at Homebrewed Christianity, by Chad Crawford.
But my trips to the mountains are always simultaneously joyful and mournful. The story I want to tell is about seeing the effects up close of the North American pine beetle outbreak. It’s devastating the Rocky Mountain forests in the U.S. and Canada and growing exponentially each year. The epidemic is occurring because our winters have not been cold enough to stop the beetles from multiplying. Bark beetles are good for the ecosystem, but not in this amount. The fall colors in our evergreen forests are telling us that global warming is no longer something our kids will face; it’s happening now. And it will accelerate if our forests disappear.
Mr. Watts, it’s not me you have to convince. There are several millions of beetles in Colorado who must be persuaded the climate is not warming — and they’ll be a tough sell, since a colder climate means death to their future generations.
A greater challenge for you, Mr. Watts: Not one of those beetles reads your blog. How will you reach them?
Crawford went to Colorado and saw Fr. Thomas Berry. Maybe we should buy a ticket to Colorado for Watts.
9 Comments | Biology, Cost of Green, Disasters, Environmental protection, Geography - Economic, Geography - Physical, Global warming, Green Politics, Politics, Reason, Religion, Science, Voodoo science | Tagged: Climate change, Climate Data, Colorado, Cost of Green, Disasters, Global warming, Green Politics, Pine Bark Beetles, Politics, Religion, Ridiculae, Science, Voodoo science | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
Climate change denialism is an astounding ball of contradictions and conundrums.
For example, while most denialists claim to be free-market devotees, they pointedly ignore market indications that climate change is real, aggravated by human actions (and inaction), and that humans can do anything about it.
Look at the insurance industry. I’ve noted often that, here in Texas, we pay higher premiums on home insurance because climate change has produced worse weather, which costs insurance companies a lot. Insurance company actuaries are paid to predict the future, reliably. If they fail, insurance companies die quickly.
Weather-related catastrophes, such as wildfires, are posing a serious threat to the insurance industry worldwide. (Photograph source: John McColgan, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Fire Service.) Caption from Berkeley Lab Research News
The “market” girds itself to fight climate change that governments are not going to move fast enough to prevent. This will cost you a lot of money.
A good place to go for information about climate change and how it affects is the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories, a group that studies the future and is no longer limited (if it ever was) to nuclear future issues.
Insurance in a Climate of Change, The Greening of Insurance in a Warming World, is loaded with information about insurance industry calculations of what the future is, and how insurance companies might and should react to the changes.
How relevant are weather-related natural disasters for insurers, and is there any evidence that the situation is worsening?
Globally, we are seeing about $80 billion/year in weather-related economic losses, of which $20 billion (about a quarter) are insured. This is like a “9/11” every year. Weather-related losses represent about 90% of all natural disaster losses, and the data I just cited do not include an enormous amount of aggregate losses from small-scale or gradual, non-catastrophic events (e.g., lightning, soil subsidence, gradual sea-level rise).
Inflation-adjusted economic losses from catastrophic events rose by 8-fold between the 1960s and 1990s and insured losses by 17-fold. Losses are increasing faster than insurance premiums. The insured share of total losses has increased dramatically in recent decades, and variability is increasing (a key trouble sign for risk-wary insurers). Weather-related catastrophes have clearly visible adverse effects on insurance prices, and availability. Of particular concern are the so-called “emerging markets” (developing countries and economies in transition”, which already have $375 billion per year in insurance premiums (about 12% of the global market at present, but rising). They are significantly more vulnerable to climate change than are industrialized countries. Emerging markets are the center of growth for the industry, yet they are also the center of vulnerability.
Increased exposures are surely influenced—and no doubt heavily in some areas—by rising demographic and socioeconomic exposures. Yet, the rise in losses has outpaced population, economic growth, and insurance penetration. The science of “attribution analysis” is still in primitive stages, and thus we cannot yet quantify the relative roles of global climate change and terrestrial human activities. Some have prematurely jumped to the conclusion [PDF] that demographic trends explain the entire rise in observed losses. In the year 2005, three independent refereed <!– –>scientific articles drew linkages between hurricane trends and climate change.
Denialists claim weather stations are badly-placed, and so we need not worry about climate change since warming can’t accurately be measured — never mind the worldwide rise in temperatures of atmosphere and oceans. Denialists claim that the greenhouse effect cannot be blamed on carbon dioxide emissions since carbon dioxide is such a small proportion of the gases in the atmosphere, apparently wholly unaware of the greenhouse effect in atmospheric gases, or unaware that only a thin pane of glass makes a greenhouse work. Denialists claim that polar bears do not decline precipitously, yet, so all wildlife will be unaffected – nevermind the dramatic shifts in migration patterns of birds and migrating mammals, and the dramatic shift in the arrival of spring. Denialists claim that Boston Harbor has survived 300 years of human development, so all harbors can survive any increase in ocean levels, nevermind the pending disasters of islands sinking out of site and destroying entire nations in the South Pacific, and never mind the drownings in Bengla Desh at every cyclone.
Most denialists rent apaartments or own homes. Denying the insurance increases will be more difficult, though I fully expect Anthony Watts and Co. will deny that the insurance company actions and studies of global warming are warranted or accurate.
Is there any good news in all of this?
By all means. Insurers need to look no farther than their roots as founders of the original fire departments, early advocates for building codes and fire safety, etc. That is to say that insurers’ history is all about risk management and loss prevention. The same thinking can apply in the case of climate change. Just as insurers fought fire risks through encouraging fire safety, better modeling, and fire suppression, so too can they be part of the climate change solution. This can take many forms, ranging from providing new insurance products (e.g., for carbon trading or energy savings insurance [PDF]), to promoting energy-efficient and renewable technologies [PDF] that also help prevent everyday losses, to engaging in the broader policy discussion on climate change. Insurers can also be part of improving the underlying science of climate change, modeling, and impacts assessment. We maintain an extensive compilation of examples of how leading insurers are stepping into the arena in a constructive manner.
Alas, there is no insurance against the dithering of climate change denialists.
14 Comments | Accuracy, air pollution, Capitalism, Climate change, denialism, Disasters, Economics, Environmental protection, Free market economics, Freedom - Economic, pollution, Science | Tagged: air pollution, Business, Carbon Dioxide, Climate change, denialism, Economics, Environmental protection, Free Enterprise, Free Markets, Global warming, Insurance Rates, Natural Disasters | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
[2008] Today’s the 52nd [53rd] anniversary of a horrendous accident in the air over the Grand Canyon. Two airliners collided, and 128 people died.
In 1956 there was no national radar system. When commercial flights left airports, often the only contact they had with any form of air traffic control was when the pilots radioed in for weather information, or for landing instructions. Especially there was no system to avoid collisions. As this 2006 story in the Deseret News (Salt Lake City) relates, the modern air traffic control system was spurred mightily by this tragedy.
About 9 a.m. Saturday, June 30, [1956], the TWA flight bound for Kansas City, Mo., and the United flight bound for Chicago left Los Angeles International Airport within three minutes of each other. The TWA flight, carrying 70 people, filed a flight plan to cruise at 19,000 feet. The United flight, with 58 people on board, planned to cruise at 21,000 feet.
About 20 minutes into the flight, TWA pilot Capt. Jack Gandy requested permission to climb to 21,000 feet. An air traffic controller in Salt Lake City turned down Gandy’s request. Then Gandy asked to fly “1,000 on top,” meaning at least a thousand feet above the clouds, which that morning were billowing as high as 30,000 feet. That request was granted.
By the time both planes were over the Grand Canyon, the pilots were flying in and out of the clouds, on visual flight rules and off their prescribed flight plans, apparently typical in those days as pilots veered off course to play tour guide.
No one knows exactly what happened.
It was the last big accident before instigation of the “black box,” so investigators had to piece together details from debris on the ground.
They decided that the left wing and propeller of the United plane hit the center fin of the TWA’s tail and cut through the fuselage, sending Flight 2 nose-first into the canyon, two miles south of the juncture of the Colorado and Little Colorado rivers. The United DC- 7, which had lost most of its left wing, began spiraling down. Capt. Robert Shirley radioed Salt Lake City a garbled message that controllers understood only after they slowed down the recording: “Salt Lake, ah, 718 . . . we are going in.” Flight 718 smashed into a cliff on Chuar Butte.
The accident plays a key role in a Tony Hillerman mystery, Skeleton Man — Hillerman writes about two Navajo Nation policemen.
I’m thinking of the crash today for two reasons. I’m off for a tour of canyons, including both rims of the Grand Canyon, in the next two weeks. The last time I was there was 1986, with the President’s Commission on Americans Outdoors. We flew in on a Twin Otter, coming up from Phoenix, over the Roosevelt Dam, up over the Mogollon Rim, over the Glen Canyon Recreation area and stopping it Page. From Page to Grand Canyon, we took full advantage of the huge windows in the Otter — seeing first hand the sights that the controversial tourist flights were designed to reveal. Safety was a key concern, and we talked about it constantly with the pilots.
A few weeks later, on June 18, 1986, that DeHavilland Twin Otter collided with a Bell Jet Ranger helicopter over the Canyon. 25 people died in that crash.
I have flown over the Canyon a dozen times since then — no longer will airliners dip down to give passengers a better view, not least because airliners cruise tens of thousands of feet higher now than they did then. I think of those airplane accidents every time I see the Canyon.
We’re driving in. We’ll spend a day and a half on the South Rim, and another couple of nights on the North Rim. We’re taking our time on the ground. But if we had time, and we could afford it, I’d love to get up in an airplane or helicopter to see the Canyon from the air again.
Updates, 2009:
2 Comments | Airplanes, Disasters, History, Transportation, Travel | Tagged: 1956, Air Safety, Airplane Crashes, Aviation, Disasters, Grand Canyon, History, Travel | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
Eternal Hope at Daily Kos wonders what happens if the conservative estimates of sea level rise — the ones you usually see cited in the press — turn out to be way too conservative. What happens if sea levels rise about double what some are estimating now?
If the severity and frequency of storms does not increase much, we may be able to accommodate the changes over time (though remember, some say we can do it easily).
How willing are the skeptics and denialists to tell cities and insurance actuaries that the fears of ocean-level increases are piffles?
Speaking of insurance: Texas has been hammered over the past 20 years by unseasonal and much more-severe-than-usual thunderstorms, ice storms, straightline winds, tornadoes and hurricanes. Home insurance rates skyrocketed. State regulators argue with insurance companies about whether rate increases are justified. Insurance companies cite claims for problems that did not exist earlier, and which may be blamed on climate change. (How much excess mold will occur due to warming?)
Sometimes the arguments erupt into lawsuits and regulatory action. One such argument drags on now, with up to a $1 billion in overcharges at stake. How much of the fight from the insurance companies comes from their fears of the effects of global warming?
4 Comments | Climate change, Disasters, Economics, Global warming, History, Politics, Texas | Tagged: Climate change, Global warming, Insurance, Politics, Sea Level Rise, Texas | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
Here’s a very odd news item. It’s odd because, first, the disaster at Chernobyl is widely dismissed, and certainly out of the news, so it’s unusual to see any news item that suggests it remains a big problem, or that hints at what a big problem it was (especially from a nominally communist view); and second, who would have predicted Cuba would play a role at all?
I found this at a blog dedicated to news from and about Cuba, Nacho’s Blog/El Blog de Nacho. I’m guessing “acn” is a Cuban news agency:
(acn) – Havana – Over 20,000 children suffering from different diseases have been seen in Cuba as part of the Cuban Medical Program for Children of Chernobyl, marking last Wednesday the 19th anniversary of its creation. The plan began in 1990, when children and their relatives began to arrive en masse from Russia, the Ukraine, Byelorussia, Moldavia and Armenia to the former Pioneer Children’s Camp in Tarará, east of this city. Dr. Julio Medina, coordinator of the Program, explained that from 700 to 800 children arrive in Cuba annually to be treated by multidisciplinary teams of Cuban specialists. So far, patients with blood diseases have been treated, especially with different variants of leukemia; bone marrow and kidney transplants have been done, as well as cardiovascular surgery due to congenital malformations.
Ukrainian Dr. Nadiezhda Guerazimenko, coordinator of the Program in that country, highlighted the professionalism of Cuban doctors. She added that the best example of this statement lies in the high figure of patients who have returned to their respective countries cured of their ailments. The Program has a significant impact in the health and recovery of children and their families. In its almost two decades of existence, it has treated more than 16,000 Ukrainians, almost 3,000 Russians, and 671 Byelorussians. Some 40,000 people died immediately and millions were contaminated as a result of the nuclear disaster on April 26, 1986, which at first hit the Ukraine, and then extended to Russia, Belarus and different parts of Europe and Asia. The event caused several types of diseases, like leukemia, tumors, heart malformations, kidney problems, psoriasis, vitiligo and alopecia. Many of the children and youngsters seen today in Cuba weren’t even born when the disaster occurred. However, their parents were affected by the radiation.
______________
Yes, it turns out “acn” is the Cuban News Agency.
1 Comment | Disasters, Geography - Physical, Geography - Political, Health care, History, Nuclear Nonproliferation, Nuclear power, Science | Tagged: Chernobyl, Cuba, disaster, geography, Health care, History, Nuclear power, Nuclear Safety | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
Joni Mitchell sang it, she’d seen “some hot, hot blazes come down to smoke and ash.” Certainly Bobby Jindal’s criticism of President Barack Obama’s budget message to Congress was no love affair, but as the Toronto, Canada Globe and Mail noted, the eruption of Redoubt Volcano in Alaska made Bobby Jindal’s objection to volcano monitoring look particularly reckless. Redoubt sent smoke and ash all over Jindal’s complaint.
This is the Globe and Mail story, really:
Alaska volcano blows smoke on Bobby Jindal
The eruption of Mount Redoubt deflates the Republican Party’s rising star
A month after Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal chided the Democrats for funding “something called volcano monitoring,” the eruption of a volcano in Alaska is spewing ash 15 kilometres into the air.
Alaska’s Mount Redoubt, which has erupted five times since Sunday, is likely among the sites to benefit from the U.S. stimulus package, with the money going toward monitoring volcanoes, repairing facilities and mapping.
In his official Republican response to President Barack Obama’s speech to the nation last month, Mr. Jindal called volcano monitoring an unnecessary frill in the government’s stimulus package.
“While some of the projects in the bill make sense, their legislation is larded with wasteful spending and includes $300-million to buy new cars for the government, $8-billion for high speed rail projects, such as a magnetic levitation line from Las Vegas to Disneyland, and $140-million for something called volcano monitoring,” Governor Jindal said. “Instead of monitoring volcanoes, what Congress should be monitoring is the eruption of spending in Washington, D.C.”
But judging by the events of the past couple of days, perhaps it’s prudent for the government to spend money monitoring volcanoes.
Mount Redoubt’s first eruption occurred at 10:38 p.m. Sunday and the fifth ended at 5 a.m. yesterday, according to the Alaska Volcano Observatory. The volcano, roughly 160 kilometres southwest of Anchorage, sent an ash plume more than 15 kilometres into the air as it erupted for the first time in nearly 20 years. Residents of Anchorage were spared from falling ash, but fine grey dust was falling yesterday morning on small communities north of the city.
The observatory was warned in late January that an eruption could occur. Increased activity prompted scientists to raise the alert level on Sunday. Flights in the vicinity of the volcano were cancelled because of the ash.
Asked in a conference call yesterday whether stimulus money is necessary for volcano monitoring, John Power, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey, declined comment.
Governor Jindal’s office did not return calls and e-mails seeking comment.
The issue could prove a wedge in two years, when Republicans are deciding on their nominee. Governor Jindal has been tabbed by some as a young academic from a diverse background who could be the party’s answer to Mr. Obama, while Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who failed in a vice-presidential bid last year, has refused to rule out a shot at the top of the 2012 ticket.
Governor Jindal’s attack on volcano monitoring was met with criticism from politicians, bloggers and some scientists. Democratic Senator Mark Begich of Alaska wrote in an open letter: “Volcano monitoring is a matter of life and death in Alaska. The science of volcano monitoring and the money needed to fund it is incredibly important in our state.”
The senator’s spokeswoman, Julie Hasquet, said Monday that the eruption of Mount Redoubt over the past few days and its potential to cause damage in the state illustrate that this is “very serious for Alaskans, and we don’t appreciate it when folks use it as a laugh line or a sound bite.”
With a report from Associated Press
Alaska's Redoubt Volcano erupted in 1990 - National Geographic photo
Tip of the old scrub brush to Sara Ann.
3 Comments | Disasters, Geography - Physical, Geography - Political, geology, Politics, Science, Volcanoes | Tagged: Bobby Jindal, Disasters, geography, geology, Politics, Science, Volcanoes | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
Why beat around the bush? Judge Richard Posner said at his blog:
I suspect that we have entered a depression. There is no widely agreed definition of the word, but I would define it as a steep reduction in output that causes or threatens to cause deflation and creates widespread public anxiety and a sense of crisis.
He has some interesting, and puckering, things to say about Bernanke’s actions, and Obama’s plans, too. His blogging colleague, Nobel-winning economist Gary Becker, has more tentative, still-Friedmanian remarks about crowding out tendencies of government spending.
It’s fun to read good economists trying to make sense of all of this.
I attended a session at the Dallas Fed a few weeks ago. The VP who gave the main presentation talked about a meeting in which someone asked Bernanke, the great scholar of depressions, a highly technical, academic and potentially embarrassing question about the Fed’s work. Bernanke closed off with an eye-twinkling comment: “This would all be very interesting, if it were not happening to me.”
Yeah, if only it weren’t happening to us, now.
3 Comments | Disasters, Economics, Weblogs | Tagged: Depression, Economics, Gary Becker, Recession, Richard Posner | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
Oh, yeah, we expected a few religious nuts to claim it was the end times when an interesting, but so far harmless swarm of small earthquakes hit the Yellowstone Caldera again.
But who expected such nuttiness?
Legal action is being taken against a Web site operator who has misrepresented the U.S. Geological Survey in a warning that the area around Yellowstone National Park should be evacuated out of concern that the park’s supervolcano could erupt.
“We started to take action as soon as we found out about it,” said Jessica Robertson of the USGS, adding that the agency was notified on Friday.
The issue has been referred to the USGS’s solicitor’s office which is pursuing charges of impersonating a federal official as well as violation of the agency’s trademark.
“The main issue we have is we don’t want people to believe it’s coming from us,” Robertson said. [From the Billings (Montana) Gazette]
It’s a hoax, but a very pernicious hoax. In a world where people believe in all sorts of things that do not happen and take actions that hurt themselves and others as a result, hoaxing is not a good game to play.
(Update, evening of January 11, 2009: Here’s the site complained about; it appears he’s removed material that would make the site look like a USGS site.)
Was this guy under a belief that what he said was correct?
The issue highlights Nash’s concerns about where people get their news.
“There is a legitimate place to get this information; this is not it,” Nash said of the Web site [ Al Nash, the Yellowstone National Park’s chief of public affairs]. “The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory is out there. You can find it. It is run by three really bright geologists. There’s really good monitoring in the park. Our offices would be the secondary place to go for information.”
Robertson said this isn’t the first time USGS has been falsely used in such claims. She said in June a YouTube video used the agency’s logo to lend legitimacy to a claim about the end of the world.
Earthquakes are very interesting. The Yellowstone is fascinating. These are good reasons to study the facts and events of nature. Hoaxes like this one, urging people to panic, play on the wealth of ignorance about science and nature, and scientists.
The only firm defense is good education and good information.
Resources:
22 Comments | Accuracy, Disasters, earthquakes, Geography - Physical, geology, History, Hoaxes, Science, Volcanoes | Tagged: earthquakes, geology, History, Hoaxes, News, Science, Yellowstone National Park, Yellowstone Volcano Observatory | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
More mostly small, less-than-3.0 magnitude earthquakes rumbled the Yellowstone Caldera, with a shift in location.
While not exactly an everyday event, still “not uncommon.” Scientists are just watching, and they detect no other signs of an imminent eruption.
YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO OBSERVATORY INFORMATION RELEASE
Friday, January 9, 2009 19:44 MST (Saturday, January 10, 2009 02:44 UTC)
YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO (CAVW#1205-01-)
44.43°N 110.67°W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m)
Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Aviation Color Code: GREENSmall Earthquake Swarm on 9 January 2009 near northeast corner of Yellowstone Caldera
A currently modest swarm of earthquakes began in the northeast corner of the Yellowstone Caldera, about 10 miles (16 km) NNE of the north end of the Yellowstone Lake swarm that was active in late December and early January. As of 1930 MST, 10 earthquakes had been located by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations, the largest with M= 3.3 and two other events with M >2.0. Located depths are between 2 and 4 km.
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory staff and collaborators are analyzing the data from this and from the earlier Yellowstone Lake swarm and are checking for any changes to the thermal areas located near the epicenters. We will provide further information as it becomes available.
—–
The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a partnership of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, and University of Utah to strengthen the long-term monitoring of volcanic and earthquake unrest in the Yellowstone National Park region. Yellowstone is the site of the largest and most diverse collection of natural thermal features in the world and the first National Park. YVO is one of the five USGS Volcano Observatories that monitor volcanoes within the United States for science and public safety.
It’s winter in Yellowstone, a great time to go. It’s the best time to go, my Yellowstone-obsessed brother would say. A swarm of earthquakes means you’ll have something to talk about at breakfast before taking your camera out to get once-in-a-lifetime shots of nature.
Earthquakes are normal in much of the Rocky Mountains, and in much of the rest of the Intermountain West. My mother used to enjoy quietly sipping coffee at the stove in her kitchen in Pleasant Grove, Utah, and saying “Oh. We’re having another earthquake.” She’d watch the power and telephone wires, which formed neat sine waves during quakes.
Experts are watching, and probably sipping their coffee, too.
.”]
See resource lists at earlier MFBathtub posts:
5 Comments | Disasters, earthquakes, Geography - Physical, geology, Natural history, Natural resources, Science, Travel, Volcanoes | Tagged: Disasters, earthquakes, geography, geology, Science, Volcanoes, Yellowstone Caldera, Yellowstone National Park | Permalink
Posted by Ed Darrell
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Ed Darrell on Texas's Colorado River
Come on in, the water's fine. Come often: Cleanliness is next to godliness.
Millard Fillmore's Bathtub 
